Sony Blu-ray and PS3: Is recession the killer?
Filed under: Gaming, Sony Playstation 3 | By: Alan Ng
Posted on: November 13, 2008 | 37 Comments
This latest recession has hit all parts of the world, including the gaming industry it seems. After the initial success of the format war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, some executives in Hollywood are worried that the recession could have an effect on the Blu-Ray industry, in terms of the prices consumers have to pay to be able to watch the films.
Of course, now everyone is more cautious with their money and what they spend it on, but for those wanting to watch Blu-rays providing they do not have the equipment, could result in a very expensive package. We are talking about having to purchase a high spec HD TV along with a dedicated Blu-Ray player. While the PS3 has an integrated Blu-Ray player, it is certainly not cheap, especially since there doesn’t seem to be any price cuts along the way. Stand-alone Blu-Ray disc players themselves are also very expensive at the moment, so this could lead to consumers searching elsewhere in hope of watching content.
Microsoft’s Xbox 360 is currently a lot cheaper to buy at the moment, compared to Sony’s PS3, and with Microsoft preparing to offer films digitally, this could be another factor in loss of sales for Sony. It certainly will be an interesting period over Christmas in regards to Blu-Ray sales. Do any of you have any plans to purchase one? Leave your comments below.
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Regardless of the recession I wouldnt buy blu-ray because i dont think its going to be around for long enough. Id rather buy an up scaling dvd player and wait until downloads become more mainstream for buying movies. Even if blu ray was a complete success, technology moves so fast that it will be soon redundant.
Blu ray will not die, and digital downloads will take another decade to take over. Blu ray already has all of the movie studios behind it. People can’t even freaking figure out DVD, how the HELL are they going to figure out digital downloads? I’m pretty tech savvy and it’s a pain for me to get my computer hooked up to my tv to download movies. I know there are machines that do this for you, but they cost just as much as a blu ray player. Here’s the reasons downloads will not take over…
1. A blu ray player is way cheaper than building a computer for downloads.
2. Digital downloads mainly only offer 2 channel audio (laughable).
3. The picture quality is nowhere near blu ray.
4. Downloading an HD movie takes WAY too long.
5. Some IP’s are putting download caps on your account already.
6. Movie studios actually prefer you to buy a physical copy.
Ready for #7…It’s a big one…
7. I can resell my blu ray movie when ever I want! How you going to re-sell a digital download? People want something for their money, especially in a recession.
Now don’t get me wrong, I think digital downloads will take over, but not for another decade. Blu Ray will be there to bridge the gap. Why do you think Microsoft put so much money into HD-DVD when they offer digital downloads everywhere else? Because about 1% of the population actually download movies. And I know Samsung came out and said blu ray will only be around for 5 years…then why are they making blu ray players and investing so much money into it?
1. A blu ray player is way cheaper than building a computer for downloads.
Not true at all. BD-Live players are built specifically for downloading movies. And the Roku player is $99; it will soon be cheaper than that. And computers do far more than download video.
2. Digital downloads mainly only offer 2 channel audio (laughable).
Not true. Vudu is 5.1. Itunes is 5.1. XBox live is 5.1. Netflix will soon be 5.1 (just waing on Silverlight). There is nothing technically in the way of offering DD5.1 or lossless audio. Studios have been careful not to take too big a bite out of DVD sales too quickly. That will change after January 1st, 2009.
3. The picture quality is nowhere near blu ray.
There is nothing technically in the way of making downloads equal to or better than blu-ray. Case in point - Vudu HDX titles. In fact, downloads remove the technical limitations of physical disc formats.
Point is though, that 99% of the population doesn’t care about the extent of HD quality. They care far more about convenience and title selection. They don’t want to fumble around with discs. That is why audio downloads are replacing CDs. That is why BD is tanking right now.
4. Downloading an HD movie takes WAY too long.
Not true. XBox Live HD titles start in as little as 20 minutes after ordering. Vudu HD titles are quicker than that. Netflix HD titles will start right after download/stream starts.
And it takes days to rent a blu-ray from Netflix. Or a trip to Blockbuster to find a blu-ray to rent from their limited selection. And if the disc has already been rented, you lose.
5. Some IP’s are putting download caps on your account already.
BD fanboys make a big deal about this, but it’s a non-issue. 250 GB/month cap allows for 25 HD rentals per month. No sane person rents/buys more than this.
6. Movie studios actually prefer you to buy a physical copy.
Not true. Studios would rather rent or sell a download, than rent or sell you a disc and have you lend it to all of your friends to watch. Of course with blu-ray, you have no one to lend it to, because no one has a blu-ray player.
And blu-ray discs cost a fortune to replicate, package, ship and distribute. Retailers take a hefty margin for selling discs. Downloads offer a much higher margin to studios.
@MCM
Well looks like I just got served! I was being pretty general in my post. Lets be honest here…the technology for digital movie downloads just isn’t there yet. One thing Roku doesnt mention on their website is that it will take many, many hours to download a movie. Wal Mart started a movie download service last year, and closed it down as quick as possible. No one was using it. Wal Mart is a great way to figure out what will sell and what wont.
You said you can start watching movies in 20 minutes from you xbox. Great, but it’s going to be buffering in 30 minutes. Like I said, downloads WILL evetually take over, but it’s going to be a while til the technology is there.
You say 99% of the population doesn’t care about the extent of HD quality, but then why are the sales for LCD and Plasma through the roof? Everyone I talk to either has a HD tv or wants one.
Looks like you answered 1-6, but what about #7? That’s the biggest one of all.
Let me ask you one question…How is your HD-DVD treating you. Because you sound like all the other bitter format failure buyers.
“Well looks like I just got served! I was being pretty general in my post. Lets be honest here…the technology for digital movie downloads just isn’t there yet.”
Wait until CES 2009…
“One thing Roku doesnt mention on their website is that it will take many, many hours to download a movie. ”
Wrong again. Netflix uses Silverlight to do “adaptive streaming”. Look it up. Hit play and the movie starts playing.
“Wal Mart started a movie download service last year, and closed it down as quick as possible. No one was using it. Wal Mart is a great way to figure out what will sell and what wont.”
20% of Netflix members use their “Watch Instantly” service on a regular basis. After XBox gets Netflix on Wednesday, that number will rise substantially.
“You said you can start watching movies in 20 minutes from you xbox. Great, but it’s going to be buffering in 30 minutes. Like I said, downloads WILL evetually take over, but it’s going to be a while til the technology is there.”
You obviously haven’t tried any of these services (Vudu, iTunes, XBLive, Netflix). If you did, you would know that they work. But you don’t.
“You say 99% of the population doesn’t care about the extent of HD quality, but then why are the sales for LCD and Plasma through the roof? Everyone I talk to either has a HD tv or wants one.”
They like the flat screen. Many think if they plug their cable in to the back of the TV they are getting HD.
“Looks like you answered 1-6, but what about #7? That’s the biggest one of all.”
Who sells DVDs??? I’ve never sold one used disc. If I’m not sure I like a movie that much, I don’t buy it. I rent it.
And let’s look at iTunes users. Do they “need to have a CD” so that they could sell it as used for $1? No. They are quite happy with the download model…
…And there are 200 million happy iTunes users.
“Let me ask you one question…How is your HD-DVD treating you. Because you sound like all the other bitter format failure buyers.”
Just because I prefer downloads? Funny how all blu-ray fanboys assume everyone that does not subscribe to their world view is somehow bitter…It’s like some sort of bizarre cult.
Youre right, it’s been about a year since I downloaded videos. I used Tivo/Amazon service. Freaking horrible. Maybe it has changed since then. I just can’t imaging the overall PQ and AQ being that good if you are streaming.
You can’t compare downloading music to blu ray. A song is 5MB, a movie is 5GB (HD). I can download a whole CD in a minute. I will admit, downloading music is WAY better than going out to get the CD. And once HD video becomes that easy, I will be the first to switch to downloading. But until then, I’ll be happy with blu ray.
So how well does any of those boxes stream HD? Because I am mainly talking HD while I think you are talking SD.
http://www.twice.com/article/CA6615190.html
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6611299.html
Netflix will put 300 titles up in HD today/tomorrow.
Here is an explanation of adaptive streaming.
http://weblogs.asp.net/freedomdumlao/archive/2008/11/03/silverlight-adaptive-streaming-how-it-works.aspx
I don’t think that digital downloads will take over any time soon, the point is only certain countries can even download at a decent rate, and most certainly aint capable of streaming HD video.
For example the fair majority of the UK except those practicaly connected to the backbone can stream HD, most people around the country can’t even muster up a 2mbps connection. I think the UK’s average rate which people recieve through to their routers is 4.5mbps. As long as this stays the case digital downloads won’t ever fully take over, and thats only the UK. over 70% of the world doesn’t have the infrastructure to cope with such things as HD Streaming.
Thats probably partly the reason why the ps3 still doesn’t have a video rental system yet in Europe, only in the US. And when I download movies on the Xbox its just laughable, the person who thinks digital downloads via the network are going to beat out Blu-Ray and DVD anytime soon need their heads checking or need to step outside of their nice little world in which they live, and take a step into some places where the grass isn’t always so green.
Now the digital download and Blu-Ray game and movie vending machines that are arriving in the UK next year should be interesting, I immagine they will do really well in the UK.
Mog
http://Www.MogCast.coM
Well blu-ray sales aren’t taking over anytime soon in the UK either. By July, only 1 million blu-ray discs were sold in the UK in 2008, compared to 110 million DVDs. That’s less than 1%.
Seems that most UK folks don’t really care about hi-def.
@MCM
The figures were worse than that when DVD first came out, and that was against VHS. But DVD eventually came out good after a fair few years.
As far as your Blu-Ray figures go anyway, they are a long LONG way off. I am not really sure where you have picked those figures up from unless you have generated them out of thin air to fight for your pointless cause.
Here is some “actual” statistics:
Written - February 12, 2008
According to the Blu-ray Disc Association, speaking in London, European movie sales have hit 2.37 million, with industry watcher, GfK, confirming the figures. That means 1.37 million Blu-ray movies have sold in the last two months alone. Last August, European Blu-ray sales were just over half a million.
“DVD-Video was first introduced into Western Europe in 1997, and the following year some 230,000 DVD players were installed and 2 million discs were sold through. In comparison, Blu-ray Disc made its first tentative launch in Western Europe in 2006, and the following year some 3.2 million PlayStation 3 consoles and 34,000 standalone players were installed, while 2.3 million Blu-ray discs sold through.”
And that was written at the beginning of this year, Blu-Ray has come on significantly since then, and as far as Blu-Ray being Betamax, I think that was actually more along the lines of HD-DVD, Blu-Ray isn’t destined to die like the whole Betamax scenario, unlike HD-DVD did.
Blu-Ray is natural progression and what people say about needing a massive 42″ HDTV at 1080p to ever see the difference in quality between a DVD movie and a high def Blu-Ray movie is garbage, the difference is easily noticed, its certainly not something you have to inspect closely thats for sure. The range of colours is a lot more full, edges are smoother and things flow better, the picture tends to be a lot more crisp, I am not saying that a 42″ full 1080p HDTV with a contrast ratio of over 50,000 : 1 isn’t needed to really reach the full benefits of Blu-Ray but the difference in quality between DVD and Blu-Ray is a fair one no matter what screen its viewed on (within reason).
Mog
http://Www.MogCast.coM