Apple’s iPhone 3G and Google’s Android totally shakes everything up

There is just one thing we can say for sure at this point, the entry into the smartphone market by two new leading-technology players (Apple and Google), has totally shaken everything up dramatically.

Apple for the first time unleashed the full power of a modern computer – OSX – inside a cellphone (sorry, Windows Mobile was never in the same class, and the potential it did have was never used), featuring a much more sophisticated UI. Apple also engaged the cellphone with its complete supporting cross-platform media ecosystem – iTunes/iPod – another first.

Google now hopes to be the first to introduce fully realized “cloud computing” into the cellphone with Android. How well that will work out we don’t know yet.

Now all the old-line cell/smartphone makers are racing to catch up: Nokia, RIM, HTC, Sony, LG et al. plus Microsoft. But Apple isn’t standing still…so Predictions are really iffy right now and my best guesses are:

Apple will continue to lead the technology, always about 1 year ahead of the pack. Its market share will grow and be good, but capped in the US due to the AT&T exclusive. Worldwide, I just don’t know.

MS will try to catch up with Windows Mobile 7 in 2009, but never quite will technically and it stands to be hurt most by Android, since both will be available to all makers and phone companies.

Nokia in particular is hurt by the lack of a full-fledged supporting in-house media ecosystem, despite its millions of handsets and dozens of models, because it has let the phone companies do that up to now. Symbian Foundation isn’t going to fix that. Maybe it needs to gobble up RealPlayer or another media service like it to get into the game fast.

Sony will just never catch on no matter how good their hardware is – the Walkman is history and their UI is always clunky. Palm will die next year, sold cheap to. RIM will maintain its core of button punching ‘crackberry’ addicts but never grow beyond that niche.

Thanks to the reader that sent this in.