HD-DVD Is Not Dead, Your Joking: Wal-Mart Backs Sony Blu-ray Only

As an owner of both Blu-Ray and HD DVD high def disc players and discs, I am amazed at how retailers and the media have just fallen in line behind Blu-Ray, when this is clearly a situation of the tail wagging the dog, in stark contrast to what the consumer is actually saying, aand goes against the best interests of consumers, independent producers, and the industry as a whole. The headlines that you are not seeing are that the consumer is clearly choosing HD DVD over Blu-Ray as a platform, despite the fact that more Blu-Ray discs have been sold to date. According to NPD, http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6413168, 8% more HD DVD players were sold than Blu-Ray players over the course of April through December last year. Ah, but that was before Warner Brothers dropped support. Well, let’s look at live data on Amazon to see which players are selling the most: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514/ref=pd_zg_hrsr_e_1_2. Low and behold, the top 3 HD players are each outselling the top 3 Blu-Ray players. And that is as of today, after everyone has proclaimed that HD DVD is dead. How can this be? The reason is simple, and is the reason HD is clear choice for consumers, producers, and retailers since the beginning: price. HD DVD is based on the existing DVD technology, so manufacturing the drives and discs is cheaper. So, while Blu-Ray was able to gain a majority share of the disc sales by focusing on niche titles that catered to early adopters, HD DVD is catering to your average Joe, who has consistently chosen HD over Blu-Ray at the store, and with the latest drop in HD DVD player and disc prices is continuing to do so. So, why all the noise then from Blu-Ray supporters and headlines decrying that the end is near for HD DVD? Well, the Blu-Ray camp can extrapolate the trends into the future as well as anyone else, and see that once HD DVD reaches main stream adoption it will clearly have an advantage over Blu-Ray, so they are taking their lead in disc sales to claim the game is over despite the fact that consumer has been and continues to choose the HD DVD platform over the Blu-Ray platform when deciding which player to buy. So, it’s great that Blu-Ray early adopters have more money than HD DVD early adopters and have bought more discs as a result, but how is this good for your average consumer, independent producers, or even the market as a whole once high def discs become mainstream. Common sense tells you that if the lower cost alternative for discs and players becomes the standard, then that standard will be adopted more quickly, since people will be able to afford more players and discs. If that is the case, then even if HD DVD drops out of the picture completely, Blu-Ray will not be adopted as rapidly as HD DVD would have due to its price, which is not good for the industry as a whole or consumers. It also isn’t good for independent movie producers who also prefer the lowest cost platform, because they are much more sensitive to margin due to their low volumes. So, given that HD DVD is the lower cost platform in terms of costs of discs and players, and given that consumers have been and are continuing to choose HD DVD over Blu-Ray as a platform choice, then why is everyone standing behind Blu-Ray? Those are good questions to ask Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and NetFlix, who surely wouldn’t be putting alliances with Blu-Ray ahead of the consumer, would they?

Got a PS3, nuff said.

“Well, let’s look at live data on Amazon to see which players are selling the most:”

HD DVD players’ prices were also slashed big time in the last few weeks out of desperation. After the Warner move, they knew the end was on the horizon, so the price drops were a last ditch effort to keep it alive. That’s the biggest reason why the players are selling on Amazon. Blu–Ray players will start coming down in price, now that everyone’s on board. Cheaper production of the players and discs is just around the corner.

Exactly. Should always factor in PS3 guys cause Im sure they dont tally us in since they regard the ps3 as a gaming console. They only count the blu ray players sold, without including the huge number of folks who use their “gaming” console for more than just that.

R Clark – US consumers maybe, but I still disagree with your views.

Anyway, in Japan and Europe, consumers decided differently. Unitied States is not the sole decider of what format wins. Realize that this format war was a global war, not national.

Still in doubt? Do a search on Bluray sales in Japan. Toshiba only had about a 6% share of the market for the HD format. It seems storage is a huge deciding factor, just as it was with VHS vs Beta. Remember?

Thats the risk involved with investing in a format when a so called ‘war’ is effect.