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By 2009: Xbox 360 Could Be Distant Third, Behind Wii and PS3 Says Analysts

By: Daniel Chubb | September 18, 2007 | 11 Comments

Xbox 360

The research group, DFC intelligence, in a recent report has predicted enormous growth in the games industry in 2009, perfect timing for Xbox 360 to lose the lead, and drop to third…

The DFC group has analysed that the gaming industry will be worth $47 billion by 2009, just in time for the Xbox 360 to lose its lead and drop behind the Nintendo Wii and The PlayStation 3. It is also mentioned, that the Wii will dominate the market through 2008, however, ultimately in 2009; the PS3 will go into overdrive, and take market dominance as always with Sony’s consoles.

David Cole (DFC analyst) mentioned; “The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third. We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue.”

So is this ultimately the future of the Xbox 360? Will Halo 3 be one of its last remaining killer apps, letting the Wii and the Ps3 slowly overtake in the upcoming two years? Give us your thoughts.

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  • Brendan

    Its official. Donkeys and analysts are one and the same.

  • Peter

    I agree totally with this. The PS3 is already selling faster than the previous 2 Playstations did and this one is a far higher spec piece of kit that appeals to non gamers purely as a piece of AV equipment. In short it is far more desirable than previous Play-stations. There are over 100m PlayStation 2 owners and it would seem that most of them aren’t remotely interested in buying an Xbox 360. In fact less than half of Xbox owners have upgraded which is strange considering that the 360 is cheap. Why aren’t these PS2 owners upgrading to 360′s? Because they want PS3′s and they are waiting for the price to drop and the big games to come out. There is no rush because the PS2 still has loads of games being released for it but eventually those multitudes of people will start buying the PS3.

    There is a realistic chance that the 360 wont even outsell the Xbox. It has only shipped around 2m this year and while sales are OK in the US they are nowhere near what Microsoft were expecting at this stage. After Halo is released what else is there? There are a few promising looking games but next years lineup is nowhere near as strong as the PS3′s who have Metal Gear Solid 4, LittleBigPlanet, Final Fantasy 13 and Gran Turismo 5 all being released.

    Next year the PS3 will sell far more than the 360 an the year after it will leave it for dead. Expect to see the 360 dropped and a new xbox released very soon afterwards.

  • Phil Harrison

    xbox 360 wins over the PS3…most of the great exclusives are for xbox 360. PS3 sucks!!!!!!!!!!!

    –Phil Harrison

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    Wow they give any idiot a high paying job these days, how in the world does he think that the PS3 will surpass the Wii?

  • Jim

    By 2012 i’ll be playing my Xbox 720 and the PS3 will be just breaking even on all the price cuts they’ve had to endure to stay competetive, if Sony really has a ten year plan for it’s console then they’re gonna be at least 3 years late to the next generation.

    7 years is as long as you could realistically expect to stay with a piece of hardware before the specs get old and newer technology becomes affordable, Sony can hype the longevity of the Cell all they want but 10 years from launch, PS3 games are gonna look the way PS1 games look now.

  • Brendan

    Alright, to say that the 360 does not have highly anticipated games after Halo 3 is simply the most misinformed statement. There are tons of great titles such as Mass Effect, Ninja Gaiden, Assassin’s Creed, in addition to multiplatform games, and not to mention the future PC games that will go exclusively on the 360 due to the M$ connection. As a prognosticator of PS3 success, I’m guessing that Peter does not own, nor want an Xbox 360 – hence the lack of knowledge regarding 360 news. I am currently playing Bioshock, COD3, NBA 2k7, and Forza2. And I just feel blessed when I visit my cousin who is still playing Resistance, Fall of Man.
    I understand we are speaking of the distant future here, but in that case, my grandmother’s guess is as good as these so-called analysts, so we might as well just consider the tangible facts on the table at the moment: PS3 sucks BALLS.

  • One

    Oh your going to anger the 360 fanboys

  • Brendan

    lol is that your comeback?

  • Ugo

    Brendon I believe Peter was talking about EXCLUSIVES. You know, games that can only be played on one system so you have to buy that system to play it. Next year there are Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Tekken and Gran Turismo being released on the PS3. The 360 doesn’t have a single exclusive as big as any of those games. Then you have Killzone 2, LittleBigPlanet, Time Crisis 4, Ratchet & Clank, Jak & Daxter, LA Noire, God Of War 3, The Getaway 3, Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune and many others which are all to be released on the PS3 and nothing else.

    Halo, Bioshock, Gears of war and Lost Planet are either on the PC or will be at some point so they are not exclusive to the 360 in any way. Maybe Peter doesn’t want a 360 because he owns a PC and therefore can already play most of the games?

    I don’t doubt that the 360 is the better choice for a gaming console right now but after next year it wont be.

  • Nathan McLaughlin

    OR, we could stop bitching, and should we be really all that bothered just buy both consoles, (PS3&XBOX360), and thus solving the problem, consumers can only win in a situation where software like halo and the final fantasy games are around.

    the reason we got into videogames in the first place was because we loved the games, not the consoles.
    lets not lose sight of that fact yea? o_o

  • Sean Gaffney

    Phil Harrison, you’re a child. just wanted to make that point first.

    Playstation will overtake the Wii as it has more potential for growth. The Wii currently has a novelty factor which is taking it to new markets but it is very short of games and hasn’t evolved since it came out. I have both Wii and PS3 so I’m in a position to judge. The Wii is great for parties or a few friends round but the PS is a better gaming machine. With time it will improve and evolve and get more and better games.